The war in Iran has thrust the world’s major central banks into a familiar—and deeply uncomfortable—position. Just as inflation pressures were easing and policymakers were preparing to move toward rate cuts, a surge in energy prices driven by disruptions in the Middle East is complicating the global outlook. The result is a worsening policy dilemma: […]
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day policy meeting this week. All eyes, however, are on how the central bank will adjust its outlook in the shadow of the ongoing conflict in Iran. A recent spike in oil prices, driven by the Middle East war, […]
Federal Reserve officials say the conflict in Iran could impact the near-term inflation outlook and add to economic uncertainty. This may push back the timeline for any further interest rate cuts until later this year. One senior official noted that the war is “something that would obviously affect the nearer-term inflation outlook.” He added, “We’ll […]
A surprisingly weak jobs report for February has cast doubt on the idea that the labor market is stabilizing. However, it probably won’t be enough to convince the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this month, as a recent oil price shock stemming from conflict in Iran introduces a new risk of higher inflation. “This […]
This spring is supposed to be when the housing market finally begins to thaw out of its three-year-long deep freeze. Ahead of the typical peak homebuying season, the indicators initially looked positive. For-sale inventory is rising, and affordability is improving in many parts of the country thanks to lower mortgage rates, solid wage growth, and […]
A Federal Reserve governor suggested that the rise of artificial intelligence may soon push the central bank into a tough spot, forcing it to choose between fighting inflation and boosting employment. The official noted that if AI significantly increases productivity, the economy could grow strongly even as changes in the labor market lead to higher […]
Federal Reserve officials are signaling that future interest rate decisions will hinge on the path of inflation, according to minutes from the central bank’s January policy meeting released on Wednesday. The discussion revealed a range of views, with some officials anticipating more rate cuts if price pressures ease, while others favored holding rates steady for […]
An unusually busy week of economic data in the US sent conflicting signals for the Federal Reserve. January payrolls rose by the most in over a year, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, allaying concerns that the job-market weakness from the previous year had carried over. However, inflation data at the end of the week […]
Financial markets had only a mild reaction to January’s Consumer Price Index data, a report that one strategist called “a little bit of a snoozer.” Despite the anticipation surrounding the release, the figures didn’t deliver any scary results or significantly alter the economic outlook. The general consensus among analysts is that the data confirms the […]
A senior Federal Reserve official expressed optimism that interest rates could decline “a fair bit more,” but emphasized that further evidence of inflation returning to the central bank’s target is necessary before supporting additional cuts. The official pointed to strong economic growth and a stable job market as reasons for ongoing caution. “If we could […]
