The fourth‑quarter earnings season is more than halfway over, and the S&P 500 is showing a strong earnings outlook. As of February 6, 59% of the companies in the index have already reported their results, and analysts now see a 13% rise in earnings per share for the quarter. If that pace holds, it would mark the 10th straight quarter of annual earnings growth for the benchmark and the fifth consecutive quarter of double‑digit gains.
Going into this reporting period, Wall Street was expecting an 8.3% jump in EPS, down from the 13.6% growth seen in the third quarter. The upgrade in expectations has been driven largely by tech firms, whose capital expenditures for artificial intelligence and other high‑growth areas have kept the market optimistic. In addition, the lingering impact of tariff policies, AI hype, and a K‑shaped consumer economy continue to shape investor sentiment.
This week’s earnings cycle will bring news from a mix of giants and disruptors: Coca‑Cola, Spotify, Robinhood, Lyft, Ford, Rivian, Moderna, Airbnb, and Coinbase. Investors are especially keen on how these companies will navigate the current economic backdrop.
Mattel’s results sent its shares tumbling 24% in extended trading after a clear miss on both top and bottom lines. The toymaker posted earnings of $0.34 per share on revenue of $1.76 billion, versus expectations of $0.51 and $1.83 billion, respectively. Even more painful was the forward guidance for 2026: net sales are projected to grow only 3‑6%, and adjusted EPS is expected to range from $1.18 to $1.30—well below the $1.41 earned last year and the $1.68 forecast by analysts. CEO Ynon Kreiz said the company saw strong quarterly topline growth and positive consumer demand, but U.S. December gross billings fell short of expectations.
Lyft’s stock fell more than 15% in after‑hours trading after the company revealed a surprise operating loss for 2025, dampening hopes of a quick turnaround. Fourth‑quarter revenue of $1.6 billion missed the $1.75 billion consensus, while gross bookings of $5.1 billion grew 19% year over year. For the full year, Lyft posted an operating loss of $188 million, compared with analysts’ forecast of a $33.3 million profit. The company’s first‑quarter guidance for adjusted EBITDA of $120‑$140 million fell short of the $147 million consensus.
Ford’s latest figures showed a sharp reversal from the previous quarter, with a net loss of $8 billion for the year as losses at its electric‑vehicle unit weighed heavily on results. The company missed earnings estimates in Q4, underscoring the challenges of scaling its EV strategy.
Robinhood’s shares slipped about 7% after a revenue miss, despite a robust 27% year‑over‑year growth to $1.28 billion—just shy of the $1.30 billion estimate. Diluted earnings per share came in at $0.66, slightly above the $0.64 consensus but well below the $1.01 seen in Q4 2024. CEO Vlad Tenev reiterated the firm’s ambition to become a “Financial SuperApp,” highlighting new banking services, stock tokens, crypto trading, and event contracts.
Marriott’s CEO, Anthony Capuano, noted that the hotel chain, like many travel companies, is experiencing a K‑shaped economy—where certain customer segments thrive while others lag, reflecting the broader divergence in consumer spending.
