In the Realm of Markets: Caution Abounds as Investors Fear Powell Could Dampen Expectations of Rate Cuts

A comprehensive look at the upcoming day in European and global markets, presented by Ankur Banerjee:

Following an exceptional November, investors are poised for an optimistic start to December in Europe. The anticipation of imminent rate cuts by central banks permeates the atmosphere, although a “fireside chat” with Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the day stands as a potential party spoiler.

The day’s calendar, filled with manufacturing PMIs from various European countries, promises insights into the region’s economy. Meanwhile, futures signal a positive opening for European bourses.

Recent data from both the euro zone and the U.S. revealing a decrease in inflation has fueled expectations of rate cuts by central banks. Money markets are currently pricing in over 100 basis points in rate cuts next year from both the Fed and the ECB.

The divergence between financial markets and central banks continues to deepen as central banks resist the discourse around rate cuts while markets absorb the relatively benign inflation data of recent weeks.

Fed policymaker Christopher Waller, known for his influential and hawkish stance, injected some unpredictability this week by expressing growing confidence in inflation returning to its 2% target. This emboldened markets to entertain rate-cut bets.

Currently, markets are indicating a 46% chance of the central bank cutting rates in March, as per the CME FedWatch tool. A week earlier, this probability stood at 27%.

Against this backdrop, Powell’s appearance later on Friday takes center stage. Whether Powell opts to refrain from policy comments or engages in discussions about rates remains uncertain. His words, or the absence thereof, will undoubtedly sway the markets.

Across Asia, the last month of the year commenced tentatively, witnessing lower shares, a defensive dollar, and a continuation of the recent decline in oil prices.

In company-related news, Tesla’s long-awaited Cybertruck has finally arrived. Composed of shiny stainless steel and fashioned into flat planes, the vehicle is priced from $60,990—more than 50% above CEO Elon Musk’s 2019 projection.

Key developments that could wield influence on Friday:

Economic events: UK nationwide house prices for November, Manufacturing PMI data from France, UK, Germany, and the euro zone.

Speakers: Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.