Industry experts and global trading executives warn that Ivory Coast could be sitting on a massive stockpile of unsold cocoa—approximately 200,000 metric tons—by the time its main crop season concludes at the end of March. The growing crisis hinges on whether the government decides to cut state-regulated prices paid to farmers, a move that would be necessary to persuade international traders to start buying again.
This situation isn’t isolated to Ivory Coast. Together with its neighbor Ghana, the country produces about half the world’s cocoa, and both are facing a similar problem. For months, beans have been piling up unsold at inland warehouses and ports. The root cause is a significant gap: the price guaranteed to farmers last October is now far higher than current world market prices, meaning traders would face steep losses on any purchases.
This massive overhang of unsold supply is putting heavy downward pressure on global cocoa prices, which have plummeted by 50% this year alone, recently hitting a near three-year low.
In a recent development, the country did manage to sell 200,000 tons of its upcoming, smaller mid-crop to international traders. This mid-crop, harvested from April to September, is generally cheaper and considered lower quality, often being processed locally. However, the standoff over the larger, more significant main crop remains unresolved.
To help farmers who haven’t been paid for their main crop beans, the Ivorian government pledged in late January to buy 100,000 tons of the unsold cocoa itself, at a cost of around $500 million. But according to global trade executives, the volume the government may ultimately need to purchase is likely much larger. These sources report that local Ivorian traders have already defaulted on contracts for at least 100,000 tons of main crop beans.
Furthermore, farmers are expected to harvest an additional 100,000 tons by the end of March that have no buyers lined up. Without a price cut, these beans will also remain unsold, adding to the growing stockpile.
The Abidjan-based cocoa regulator, responsible for setting farmer prices, has called market estimates of the unsold stocks “erroneous,” though it provided no further details. In a sign that change may be coming, the country’s agriculture minister said an announcement on prices for the mid-crop will be made by the end of February, over a month earlier than usual.
The pressure is mounting, especially after Ghana slashed its own farmer price by almost a third last week. Sources indicate that Ivory Coast is now considering a similar price cut to bring its rates in line with its neighbor and finally unlock the stalled cocoa sales.
