It’s a data‑heavy week for the markets. The January jobs report, delayed because of a partial government shutdown, is set to be released this Wednesday, February 11. A few days later, on Friday, February 13, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January will hit the news cycle.
Economists are already pinning their hopes on the jobs numbers. The consensus is for an addition of about 70,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate staying at roughly 4.4%. Most of those new jobs are expected to come from healthcare and social assistance—a pattern that could signal a lingering softness in the labor market.
Because the January report is a benchmark revision, it will also tweak the 2025 data that were released earlier this year. Those revisions could reveal even slower growth than the preliminary figures showed, but the focus will be on the present and future trends rather than the past.
Meanwhile, inflation watchers are eyeing the CPI. Analysts predict the headline figure will rise by 2.5% from December, with the core CPI—excluding volatile food and energy prices—mirroring that pace. The month‑over‑month core increase is expected to be a modest 0.2%. If the numbers come in hotter than the forecast, it could raise concerns about a potential slowdown in price pressures.
Polymarket traders are already betting that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its next policy meeting, giving an 85% probability to a hold. The Fed’s focus remains on whether the labor market is stabilizing and whether inflation is trending downward in a sustainable way.
Should the jobs data confirm a modest uptick and the CPI stay near 2.5%, the Fed is likely to maintain its current stance. However, if inflation proves hotter than expected, the central bank may lean even more toward keeping rates steady, at least for the time being.
