In Tokyo, core consumer inflation is anticipated to have experienced a moderated growth of 2.4% in November, a Reuters poll of economists revealed on Friday. This signals a deceleration from the 2.7% increase observed in October. The core consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo, a pivotal gauge for nationwide inflation trends, is influenced by declining fuel costs and a sluggish rise in food prices. Analysts, such as Shunpei Fujita from Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting, attribute the expected slowdown to reduced government subsidies, coupled with potential declines in electricity prices amid peaking crude oil prices.
Despite the Bank of Japan maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, market players anticipate a shift away from yield curve control (YCC) and the negative rate policy next year. This anticipation is rooted in expectations of inflation surpassing the central bank’s 2% target for an extended period.
Additionally, economists foresee a month-on-month contraction in household spending in October, estimating a 0.2% drop from the previous month and a 3.0% decline from the same period last year. The poll also projects Japan’s current account balance to reach a surplus of 1.90 trillion yen ($12.83 billion) in October, following the 2.72 trillion yen surplus recorded in September. Key economic data, including Tokyo CPI, household spending, and current account figures, are scheduled for release in early December.