With the recent drop in Bitcoin’s price, everyone wants to know when the bottom will be in. While it’s impossible to be sure in real-time, we can use history as a guide. By examining Bitcoin’s historical seasonality, we can look for patterns that tend to repeat year after year.
Looking at data from 2018 to 2025—a period that marks the beginning of institutional adoption with the introduction of Bitcoin futures—we can see some interesting trends. To get a clearer picture, analysts often use the median return instead of the average, as Bitcoin’s extreme price swings can make averages volatile.
The data reveals that not all months are created equal. Only three months consistently show strong performance with a 70% or better “win rate”: February, July, and October. These months have median returns of 7%, 13%, and 11% respectively. Interestingly, there are many months where Bitcoin has historically struggled, suggesting that its positive results tend to cluster in specific periods, with the asset often moving sideways or frustrating traders the rest of the time.
When we zoom in to look at the performance of every single day of the year, the pattern becomes even clearer. The median return (a more stable measure) tends to drift sideways for much of the year, supporting the idea that Bitcoin spends a lot of time in consolidation. The current year’s performance, however, is not following this historical map. The recent sell-off is reminiscent of a similar event in 2025, where risk assets sold off sharply only to revert to seasonal norms a few months later.
This historical perspective suggests a potential for a price rise between March and May as Bitcoin searches for a bottom. However, comparing the current four-year cycle to the previous one indicates that the market could continue to trend lower into the end of the year, potentially finding a bottom around the $40,000s. The key takeaway is that bottoming is a process that requires patience. While no one has a crystal ball, these historical patterns can add clarity to the current market uncertainty.
